Whales
Three views on Polymarket's public position data: who's winning, what they're trading right now, and where the strongest conviction sits.
TL;DR
Open the Whales workspace from the top nav. Three tabs, one underlying dataset, three different cuts of it. Use them together: Top Wallets to find who knows what they're doing, Live Trades to see what those wallets are doing right now, Conviction to filter for the bets they actually believe in.
Top Wallets
Volume leaderboard pulled from Polymarket's profit API. Top 100 wallets ranked by 7-day or all-time profit. Each row shows the wallet's name (or pseudonym), profile picture, total profit, total volume, and win rate.
Click any row to open the full profile. You get a chart of their cumulative PnL over time, a breakdown of which markets they made money in, and the full trade history filterable by date and category. This is the easiest way to figure out who actually knows what they are doing in a category before you copy a thesis off a tweet.
Live Trades
Stream of large fills happening across all of Polymarket right now. By default it shows every fill above the size threshold; new rows flash on arrival.
Smart Money toggle
Click the emerald crown icon to flip into Smart Money mode. That filters the feed down to fills from the top 200 profit-leader wallets only. The allowlist is cached for ten minutes from lb-api/profit, so the set of wallets refreshes a few times an hour without spamming Polymarket's API.
Note
Conviction
Conviction is the alpha-finder. It scans the top 60 profit leaders, grabs their open positions, and looks for bets that meet three thresholds at once:
- ●Bought at least $5,000 of the position. cuts out experimental dust
- ●Entry price is at least 5¢ off the current market price. they think the market is wrong by a meaningful amount
- ●Position is at least 5% of the wallet's total open exposure — real conviction, not just a stray click
Positions that pass all three get scored as log10(bought) × gapCents × concentration. The top 30 ranked by score show up in the panel.
Contrarian vs Riding
Each row gets one of two tags:
- ●Contrarian — the wallet entered above the current market price. They believe the market is too low and should reprice up. These are the bets where someone is betting against today's consensus.
- ●Riding — the wallet entered below the current price. The market already moved their way; they are still holding instead of taking profit. Useful for spotting "this trend has more room to run" plays.
Each row shows the market icon, full question, the wallet's bought amount and entry price, the current market price, how much of the position they are still holding, and their lifetime PnL. Click through to either the market or the wallet profile.
How traders actually use these
A few patterns that show up:
- ●Use Top Wallets to find category specialists. Sort by 7-day profit, then click into wallets to see if their volume is concentrated in one category. People who only bet on NBA tend to be sharp on NBA.
- ●Use Smart Money on Live Trades during news. The 30-60 seconds after a breaking story tend to surface the people who actually understand the implications.
- ●Use Conviction to source ideas. Filter by category if you have a thesis on, say, crypto markets, and see what the top wallets are sitting on. Their entry price tells you what they thought a fair price was.
- ●Cross-reference. If a Conviction bet is also showing up in Live Trades that hour, the wallet is adding to the position. That is a stronger signal than either tab alone.
Important