Weather Markets
Polymarket runs weather markets for major cities. Celsa pulls live forecasts alongside so you can spot where the market disagrees with the model.
TL;DR
How weather markets work
Weather markets ask things like “Will the high in London on April 5 be above 15°C?” Each market has a target city, date, and temperature threshold. They resolve based on official weather observations.
Supported cities
| City | Region |
|---|---|
| London | Europe |
| New York | North America |
| Chicago | North America |
| Toronto | North America |
| Paris | Europe |
| Munich | Europe |
| Shanghai | Asia |
| Seoul | Asia |
| Taipei | Asia |
| Tel Aviv | Middle East |
Forecast models
The weather panel shows forecasts from several major weather models, so you get a range of predictions instead of just one number:
- ●GFS — Global Forecast System (NOAA, USA)
- ●ECMWF — European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ●ICON — Icosahedral Non-hydrostatic model (DWD, Germany)
- ●GEM — Global Environmental Multiscale (Canada)
Resolution
Weather markets usually resolve within 24 hours of the target date. The resolution source is the official weather observation for that city and metric. You can see the exact resolution criteria on each market's detail page.
Globe view
The globe overlay in the terminal shows temperature and wind data from Open-Meteo. Click any city marker to jump to weather markets for that location.